Kasikorn Asset Management (KAsset) has released its 2026 KAsset Capital Market Assumptions (KCMA) research in collaboration with J.P. Morgan Asset Management, presenting a 10–15 year long-term outlook on the global economy and investment landscape. The study projects a globally diversified portfolio to generate average annual returns of around 6.4%, with fixed income regaining importance amid higher yields, while Thailand's economy continues to face structural constraints with long-term growth estimated at 2.1% per year, prompting investors to diversify into overseas assets and alternative investments to enhance long-term portfolio resilience.
Mr. Win Phromphaet, CFA, Executive Chairman of Kasikorn Asset Management (KAsset), revealed that KAsset has presented the KAsset Capital Market Assumptions (KCMA) 2026 research for the second consecutive year, in collaboration with J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The research aims to communicate a long-term framework of economic and investment perspectives and assumptions. This is the result of collaboration among more than 30 experts from four core investment teams across both organizations, building upon J.P. Morgan Asset Management's globally recognized Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions framework and adapting it to suit the context of Thai investors. The study covers assessments of return and risk trends across more than 100 asset classes over a 10–15 year horizon, supporting systematic long-term investment planning and decision-making.
“Against the backdrop of a global economy undergoing transition amid economic nationalism, trade tensions, and persistently tight labor markets, uncertainty remains elevated. However, supportive signals are emerging from the recovery of both public and private sector investment, as well as the role of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) in enhancing long-term productivity. These factors make long-term investment strategy planning increasingly attractive. A globally diversified portfolio is expected to deliver an average annual return of approximately 6.4%, while fixed income has regained prominence due to higher yield levels.
For the Thai economy, structural constraints persist, including slowing investment, an aging society, and a declining trend in productivity growth. As a result, long-term economic growth is projected at around 2.1% per year, with average inflation of approximately 1.2%. Thailand's capital market remains largely dependent on dividend yields, while fixed income faces limitations in return potential. Therefore, investors are advised to place greater emphasis on diversification into overseas assets and alternative investments to enhance portfolio flexibility and mitigate risks arising from structural changes and long-term inflationary pressures," Mr. Win said.
Mr. Win further added that KAsset is committed to elevating the KAsset Capital Market Assumptions (KCMA) research into a key strategic framework for long-term investment planning. The objective is to help investors better understand asset return and risk trends under systematic and academically grounded assumptions, thereby enabling more effective investment decision-making amid market uncertainty. This approach is intended to support investors in managing volatility, generating appropriate returns, and achieving long-term financial goals in a stable and sustainable manner.